Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 1.305124 1.383201 1.464611 1.556033 1.656085 1.762531 1.884704
2026-01-18 1.185537 1.295512 1.415522 1.556999 1.720252 1.903982 2.128200
2026-01-25 1.124255 1.255306 1.403034 1.583492 1.800201 2.054977 2.381612
2026-02-01 1.047487 1.187741 1.349591 1.552539 1.803668 2.108989 2.515976
2026-02-08 0.978203 1.122686 1.292534 1.510034 1.785831 2.130634 2.605724
2026-02-15 0.933251 1.083136 1.262397 1.496536 1.800443 2.190822 2.746639
2026-02-22 0.901411 1.057153 1.246455 1.498395 1.832838 2.273975 2.922943
2026-03-01 0.861785 1.019136 1.212893 1.474721 1.828761 2.306164 3.028242
2026-03-08 0.818514 0.974420 1.168404 1.433784 1.798069 2.298315 3.072745
2026-03-15 0.791599 0.949235 1.147617 1.422723 1.806745 2.345026 3.200795
2026-03-22 0.780578 0.943817 1.151955 1.445173 1.862597 2.462128 3.446399
2026-03-29 0.761425 0.926870 1.140081 1.444353 1.884634 2.530079 3.619271
2026-04-05 0.748526 0.918366 1.139997 1.461169 1.935064 2.647270 3.890656
2026-04-12 0.730342 0.902152 1.128791 1.461642 1.961298 2.729090 4.111673
2026-04-19 0.721710 0.898307 1.134126 1.485769 2.024199 2.873303 4.459711
2026-04-26 0.696105 0.870377 1.104795 1.457568 2.004267 2.880266 4.555110
2026-05-03 0.668571 0.838936 1.069421 1.418802 1.965462 2.852692 4.581132
2026-05-10 0.651122 0.820883 1.052300 1.406482 1.967789 2.894625 4.746985
2026-05-17 0.639073 0.809917 1.044793 1.408179 1.992483 2.976532 5.002668
2026-05-24 0.620561 0.789324 1.022717 1.386561 1.977630 2.987202 5.111217
2026-05-31 0.598205 0.762740 0.991189 1.349145 1.934684 2.944433 5.100512
2026-06-07 0.584965 0.748737 0.977561 1.339028 1.936901 2.983972 5.274443
2026-06-14 0.581205 0.748089 0.983401 1.359559 1.991975 3.125335 5.697115